[Viewpoint] The World After COVID-19

The World After the Black Swan:
Rediscovering Everyday Life,
Accelerating Digital Transformation,
and Shifting Global Order

원본보기 아이콘

The black swan has arrived. How will the world change after the black swan known as the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) passes? Two months into the full onset of the COVID-19 crisis, we instinctively realize that the world after this event will be fundamentally different from before.

The first change is the “rediscovery of everyday life.” Historically, after epidemics break out, new technologies emerge and philosophy and thinking undergo significant changes. As factories in China shut down, the blue sky has reappeared in Seoul and the air is much fresher. Empty roads and working from home make us reflect on how busily we have been pursuing material things until now. The same situation depicted in future thriller movies like “28 Hours Later” and “28 Days Later,” set in London, is actually happening there. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for COVID-19, and London was shut down for three weeks?a movie-like reality has occurred. We deeply miss the ordinary days when we could breathe freely and walk around without masks. We keenly realize the importance of family and naturally feel respect and gratitude toward healthcare workers and public officials dedicated to quarantine efforts. With this crisis added to the new normal economy of “low interest rates” and “low growth,” citizens now place greater value on “eco-friendliness” and “sustainability,” and a new everyday life is approaching where more people prefer a minimalist lifestyle.

The second is the “acceleration of digital technology.” The COVID-19 crisis has become a powerful momentum driving digital transformation for individuals and organizations. For the first time in my life, I am conducting real-time remote classes with graduate students through an app called “Zoom.” It is expected that work styles in workplaces and universities will fundamentally change in the future. Although it started forcibly, I believe that a period of over three months is a sufficient experimental period to adapt to a new lifestyle. As contactless (non-face-to-face) technologies and services rapidly rise, many existing service industries that directly face unspecified masses offline are suffering. The travel industry and duty-free shops, experiencing nearly a 90% drop in sales, as well as the food and lodging industries and large marts and shopping malls, which have seen sales decline by up to 40%, are expected to be newly reorganized due to this crisis. Offline stores will evolve into experience centers offering one-on-one experiential services, while companies with digital content and healthcare industries utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to grow rapidly.

The third is the “change in the world order.” Since the 2008 financial crisis, the world has been witnessing a hegemonic struggle between the United States and China, with Europe lagging behind, while seeking ways to resolve the aftereffects of strong globalization. Due to this crisis, the global economy is expected to enter full-fledged “slowbalization,” where globalization slows down. The Korean economy, which heavily depends on overseas exports, is highly exposed to such risks. This crisis has damaged global supply chains and is likely to cause a backlash against the globalization of manufacturing led by China. Lastly, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics have been postponed. However, the battle results (mortality rates) of each country fighting the global disease called COVID-19 are being reported in real time. The “COVID Olympics” have begun. Countries like Taiwan, Korea, and Germany, which responded agilely by utilizing digital infrastructure, have become relative winners, while countries like Italy, Spain, Japan, and the United States, which failed to respond effectively, have become relative losers, making changes in national brand value and the world order inevitable.

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.